Part One with NOAA: Sea Level Rise & Coastal Congregations
In February, the Climate Cafe Multifaith held a Part One conversation with David Herring, Chief of the Communication, Education, and Engagement Division within NOAA's Climate Program Office, and Program Manager for the NOAA Climate.gov and U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit websites. (Link for Part Two, conversations and toolkits for resilience.)
In Part One (summary and video below), we covered the ‘why’ of sea level rise, and looked at projections as to what we can expect now, and over coming decades. We also talked about mitigation and adaptation—what we can do and are already doing to help manage what we hope will not be unmanageable. Read more for links to helpful information and toolkits. We are not alone, and we do not have to face this challenge alone.
As people of faith, we invest in our places of worship and we love the communities we are part of. Especially for congregations in coastal communities, coastal flooding is going to be a big deal to grapple with. If we plug in some (very) round numbers, NOAA tells us that 40% of the US population lives in a coastal county. The Hartford Institute for Religion estimates that there are 350,000 congregations in the US. If we take 40% as an, again, round estimate, that puts 140,000 local congregations in the ebb and flow of climate-driven changes to fisheries, tidal flooding, salt water intrusion, and more.
In this video, David Herring speaks about sea level rise, what causes it, what we can expect, and what we can do about it.
What is Sea Level Rise?
Over the ages the volume of water in the oceans and the lines that mark the seashore have changed. Over the last several million years, these slow changes were influenced by Earth’s ice ages (called ‘glacial periods’) and the warm periods in between them (called ‘interglacials’). Where the shoreline is at any given time depends on the ocean water volume and also on the movement of Earth’s land masses. The continents are land masses on top of the liquid Earth core. They move and slip and shift. This movement can result in shorelines becoming mountains, or mountains gradually submerging into the sea. These mechanisms happen over millions of years.
Over the last decades we have had a very different thing going on. Instead of millions of years, we are experiencing an unusually rapid rise in mean global sea level. Sea levels are projected to rise between 1-4 feet this century, and possibly by more than 6 feet depending on how much ice mass is lost from the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. The reason these ice sheets are melting is that the Earth is undergoing rapid heating from a change to the chemical content of the atmosphere. We humans are adding billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the air every year. Carbon dioxide acts like a blanket, keeping in the warmth of the Earth. That extra warmth is warming the planet, including melting the snow and ice from the poles and mountaintops.
As people of faith, our lens to understand what is happening includes our faith traditions and teachings. In my tradition, we have the story of Creation, where God parts the waters, brings up land, and in the wind the Holy Spirit breathes life into God’s living creatures. In my tradition, this teaching informs my core values: I understand the Creation, including its plants and precious creatures, as belonging to God. I apply these values as I navigate the best and most recent science. We are facing an emergency of neighbor helping neighbor. In order to grapple with rising seas—which will affect many millions of people—I believe we can bring our faith traditions together with the best science and meet the moment.
Even as we take scientific measurements of the carbon levels in the atmosphere, we can remember that this sky, this wind, this air, is our dwelling place—our one and only home planet—where God is revealed and praised. Even as we take scientific measurements to understand the changing tide, the warming ocean temps, and melting ice, we remember the words of our scriptures, “The earth is filled full by the fruit of what you’ve done.” Psalm 104
“…the biggest wildcard I think, in terms of which outcome will we see decades into the future really has to do with what choices will humans make in terms of our rates of emission of heat trapping gases.”
—David Herring, NOAA
Graph: Sea levels since the last ice age. Notice the stable sea level over the last 8,000 years. Based on the graph by R.A. Rhode, Roger Williams Univ. Open Publishing. Photo by Jonathan Roger.
Warming, Melting, and Rising
Humans have flourished on this good, green, wonderful Earth. Over the last 8,000 years, human societies have developed in a relatively stable climate. The carbon levels in the atmosphere stayed largely constant, as did the levels of water on the sea shore. This stability was helpful, and our wisdom and faith traditions celebrate food harvests, planting seasons, and seasonal rains, in just the right amounts. That stability is being disrupted by rising global temperatures, and we see the consequences of that disruption in worsening floods, heatwaves, and droughts, and also to the recent ice and snow storms attributed to changes in the jet stream that affect the polar vortex.
David Herring walked us through this shift, from stability to rapid change. “For about the last 8,000 years, sea level has been fairly static. …This is the period of modern human society, modern human civilization. So you could say that our systems, of travel, trade, and commerce, and our built environments…were developed and optimized over this period of time, when, from a human standpoint, sea level has appeared to be fairly static.”
Herring notes that “Earth's frozen assets are melting,” referring to the rapid melting of glaciers and the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. Water from melting land ice is pouring into the oceans, just as a faucet might fill a bathtub, causing sea level to rise. Additionally, the ocean has absorbed a very large majority of the excess heat energy caused by the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, causing the ocean to warm like a pot of water would do in a warming oven. Warm water expands—called thermal expansion. The ocean, then is expanding in volume as it warms up. Both these causes have contributed roughly equally to the foot or so of global sea level rise experienced over the last century. But the melting of ice is projected to increase dramatically in coming decades, driving sea level rise at a much faster rate.
There are many consequences to this, such as erosion of coastal lands, loss of habitat for species, loss of fresh water in coastal communities, and inundation of and damages to valuable property and infrastructure. One way of gaging the slow creep of sea level rise is by measuring the annual number of high tide flood events, also known as ‘nuisance flooding.’ Herring warns that it’s going to get worse. For example, he says, in Annapolis, MD, “The number of days with high tide flooding could increase from about 8 days per year over the last decade to as many as 198 days per year by the 2050s.”
“By 2050, ‘moderate’ (typically damaging) flooding is expected to occur, on average, more than 10 times as often as it does today, and can be intensified by local factors.”
Photo: Christ and Saint Luke’s Episcopal Church in Norfolk, VA, during high tide “nuisance” flooding, May 2020. The church has an active Earth Savers ministry. (Photo by Aileen Devlin | Virginia Sea Grant CC BY-ND 2.0 )
Quadruple Whammy
The warming planet means warming oceans, warming land, and warmer air. And this is where we get to what Herring calls a “quadruple whammy.” For oceanic weather systems, such as hurricanes and tropical storms, scientists can measure the changes caused by this extra heat. The ocean levels are rising. This means tidal floods are flooding roadways and encroaching on what used to be dry land. The ocean sea level rise also produces stronger storm surges and more widespread storm flooding. And, the warmer waters and warmer air mean even more water drawn up into storms in the form of more precipitation.
Herring explains that larger hurricanes can hold more water in a warming world. These large hurricanes have larger bands where the wind moves the moisture through the atmosphere. These bands, then, reach farther inland than before. In addition to these storms having a wider reach, they also hold more water because warmer air is ‘thirstier,’ and has a greater capacity to hold water vapor. Also, says Herring, “a warmer ocean gives up its water more readily to a thirstier atmosphere.”
These storms do not have to be category four or five hurricanes, in terms of wind speed to cause major damage. Herring explains that even a “category two or three storm is carrying way more water and, therefore, producing more rainfall.” These swirling bands reach miles inland dumping trillions of gallons. The water overfills the streams and rivers that run down to the coast—the same coast that is experiencing sea level rise, storm surge, rising ground water, and stormwater flooding. And this, Herring explains, is how you get a “quadruple whammy of water coming from all angles, for which all coastal communities must plan and prepare.”
For millennia, Alaska’s forests and soils have been a storehouse of carbon, locked in permafrost (frozen soil). Now, longer warm seasons and higher temperatures have caused widespread thawing. This means that “we've now crossed a threshold in which Mother Nature has put her foot on top of ours on the gas pedal, by putting more heat trapping gas (methane and carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere, and at an accelerating rate.”
—David Herring, NOAA
Photo: Russian Orthodox Church hostel at Monk's Lagoon. Alaska, Spruce Island, Icon Bay. 2004. Photo by John Adams, Kodiak Borough Educator. Credit: Collection of Frank Cantelas, NOAA/OAR/OER. CC BY 2.0
A Direct Relationship - Carbon and Sea Levels
As the earth warms, sea level rise is accelerating. Herring shows there is “a direct, unequivocal relationship” between global warming and rising sea level—“our world has been warming over the last century with an accelerating rate in the last 40 years. If carbon dioxide emissions aren’t stabilized soon, models project both global warming and sea level rise will accelerate further.” A global average of two to four feet of sea level rise is already baked in. This impact is already a challenge on the US east coast, especially in places like Florida, Louisiana, and mid-Atlantic states.
The rising seas impact real people, real businesses, and real quality of life. Saltwater intrusion into groundwater effects farms and communities. When it comes to “big cities where we’ve invested trillions of dollars,” Herring described a range of adaptation options such as living shorelines, elevating and hardening structures and managed retreat. He asks, “Should we consider relocating Wall Street?” The hard reality is that “over $106 billion worth of coastal property will likely be below sea level by the year 2050.”
Explains Herring, “In general, in Washington DC, in Tampa, in lots of places around the world, we have many $100 million to $100 billion-dollar infrastructure projects—such as energy plants and substations, water treatment plants, and other vital infrastructure—that are in harm’s way. We also have many military installations in coastal regions with, again, billions of dollars of investment. So there's a lot at stake.”
“Avoid the unmanageable” and “manage the unavoidable.”
If we keep burning fossil fuels at today’s rate, or greater, then we are very likely to see more severe climate-driven extreme events, with growing cost damages. There are two categories of actions that we can take to address the climate crisis: (1) ‘mitigation,’ or strategies to reduce emission of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases; and (2) ‘adaptation,’ or strategies to adjust to new climate conditions. Herring emphasized that both are urgently needed, explaining that “mitigation is about avoiding the undesired, unmanageable future conditions we don’t want to experience, and adaptation is about managing for the unavoidable changes that are already occurring.”
While there is a lot at stake, Herring sees a lot of potential for positive action in both categories. Many communities are already taking proactive steps to protect people, property and infrastructure from the climate hazards they are facing. For example, North Carolina residents successfully lobbied the state to move the iconic Cape Hatteras Lighthouse to higher ground to protect it from rising seas. Other communities are initiating coastal restoration projects to control erosion and reduce the risks of stronger storm surges.
There is potentially a lot to be gained in coastal restoration with or without the imperative we face. Turning concrete piers into ‘living shorelines’ will help grow marsh and eel grass, sequestering huge amounts of carbon. And there’s so much more, says Herring. Living shorelines “provide valuable habitat for fish and shellfish to lay their eggs and to grow from juvenile to adult stages, and they also help in filtering out a lot of known human pollutants.”
“Living shorelines use natural materials such as plants, rocks, and oysters to help stabilize shorelines from erosion while maintaining and improving wildlife habitat and supporting the resilience of coastal communities.”
—NOAA Fisheries publication Building Coastal Resilience through Living Shorelines. 2019.
Scallops and eelgrass, by Bob Orth, Virginia Institute of Marine Science. NOAA’s National Ocean Science 2017 CC BY 2.0
Strategies for Communities
Coastal restoration projects aren’t just climate smart, they are good for the economy. Says Herring, “while mitigating subsidence and providing habitat, for every million dollars invested locally in coastal restoration projects, that generates many times more jobs than a million dollars spent in fossil fuel extraction from offshore drilling.”
Communities can and do have an essential voice when it comes to determining risks and taking action. Science offers essential tools to help communities evaluate their exposure and risks, and strategize for effective outcomes. The people of those communities bring their heart and love of the land and neighbor to solve problems together, especially when navigating the hard stuff.
Herring sees science and the work of NOAA and Climate.gov as an essential and eager partner in supporting communities as people undertake their next necessary steps. The work of climate and environmental science is part of a community partnership. Explains Herring, “it's nuanced because science has a seat at the table, but it's not like it's holding a trump card. There are other ways of knowing that also come into play. There are politics, there are cultural values and the identity of place. There are faith-based ways of knowing. People have financial incentives as well as other motivations to protect nature and to protect resources.”
In this video, David Herring shares ‘what gives him hope.’
In Part Two: Community Solutions
Herring acknowledges that when seeking solutions, “it becomes this really entangled knot of values and considerations.” This has not discouraged him. Instead, he has steadfastly doubled down, engaging a team at NOAA to develop resources to engage and communicate broadly with communities and people and businesses. In Part Two of Herring’s talk, he addresses conversation and toolkits for resilience. And specifically, ‘what are strategies for engagement? How can we inspire people to take action?’ That's always a fun and interesting conversation.”
And as for how things may all end up in a hundred years? Says Herring, “I feel confident and hopeful that we can and will do better in terms of how we treat the ocean because it has treated us so well for the whole period of modern civilization.”
Links
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit: a one-stop shop with intro, case studies, and resources.
NOAA 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report: don’t let the word ‘technical’ put you off. There is a lot of very accessible information at this site.
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer: an interactive mapping page.
NOAA Digital Coast: a place to ‘dive in’ with tons of information just a click away.
Living Shorelines: so much great information here and so much hope! Living Shorelines, the basics with photos and infographics ; Building Coastal Resilience through Living Shorelines, a 2019 fact sheet ; Living Shorelines, 65 Projects in the Northeast ; Living Shorelines Habitat Blueprint, before and after photos of projects.
Photographs and Images: NOAA and like organizations have Flickr accounts with CC licensing. If you need a photo for the bulletin, small group study, meditation or worship powerpoint, the photos at these accounts are both beautiful, such as this photo of humpback whales, and informative, such as this photo of refineries caught in coastal flooding, from Coast Guard News. NOAA Photo Library ; NOAA National Ocean Service ; NOAA Ocean Exploration ; NOAA Fisheries West Coast ; and more.
David Herring is an award-winning science communicator with 30 years of experience working within the Earth system science communities at NOAA and NASA. David is Chief of the Communication, Education, and Engagement Division within NOAA's Climate Program Office, based in Silver Spring, MD, where he also serves as Program Manager for the NOAA Climate.gov and U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit websites. Before joining NOAA in 2008, David worked for 16 years at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, where he served as Outreach Coordinator for the Terra satellite mission and led development of NASA's Earth Observatory website. David is a co-chair of the US Global Change Research Program's Federal Adaptation & Resilience Group, and he is an elected Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He received his Masters Degree in Science & Technical Communication from East Carolina University in 1992.
Find more articles and video at the intersection of faith, climate change and climate justice on the Faiths4Future blog.
Rev. Richenda Fairhurst is here for the friendship and conversations about climate, community, and connection. She organizes the Climate Cafe Multifaith as a co-leader of Faiths4Future. Find her in real life in Southern Oregon, working as Steward of Climate with the nonprofit Circle Faith Future.